- Amazon is investing heavily at present. Operating margins will remain weak due to the huge infrastructure moves the company is making.
- Cloud growth is just getting started as so many companies have yet to make the shift.
- Convenience & Speed will ensure customers will continue to buy from Amazon.
Any time a growth stock like Amazon (NSDQ:AMZN) comes under pressure, value investors come out in droves citing the company's ridiculously high earnings multiple as reason enough to stay clear of the stock. Growth investors and value investors are two entirely different breeds. One looks for deeply discounted fundamentally strong companies whereas growth investors concentrate a lot on growth rates and forward-looking trends. Despite reporting a lackluster set of earnings for its third quarter, I do not believe the fundamentals have changed for Amazon, going forward.
Jeff Bezos and his company have definitely been scrutinized since Trump became president-elect. In fact, the FANG stocks, in general, have seen outflows of capital over the past month which have bolstered the price of infrastructure and bank stocks (sectors which are expected to do well under a Trump administration). So, when one combines the disdain Trump "seemingly" has at present towards Amazon along with the company's poor showing in Q3, both from a margin and guidance perspective, it is no surprise to see Amazon trading at almost 10% off its October highs. With a stock like Amazon, any pull back is going to be blown up by the bears. However, most value investors see the world only through their own eyes and not through the eyes of the CEO. Bezos wants world domination and will continually sacrifice short-term profits in order to increase the market cap of the company. Here are three reasons why AMZN stock is going higher. (See also: Amazon.com Inc: Is AMZN Stock A Multi-Bagger Stock Even Today?)
Growth Metrics Remain Highly Attractive
As with any growth stock, growth rates across a plethora of metrics are key for AMZN. Revenue growth is critical and is not slowing down. In fact, although the company's 12-month top line growth rate of 24.2% is below the 10 year average of 28.6%, it is actually above the 5-year average number of 23.9% growth. Therefore, top line growth has actually re-accelerated over the past 5 years. Despite the subdued poor third quarter, Amazon reported top-line growth of 29% which is above average and one of the most important growth metrics that investors study. Margins (both operating & gross) are also crucial for growth companies. On a trailing twelve month average, Amazon has gross margins of 34.6% and operating margins of 3.2%. Bears have honed in on operating margins (1.8% last quarter) which are bound to come under pressure when the company builds out its infrastructure. Investments Amazon is undertaking at present have a timeline and this I believe is what bears are missing. As long as revenue, gross margins and analysts expectations for growth are above what the company is presently reporting, then Amazon will firmly remain in growth stage going forward.
Amazon Web Services Remains Lightyears Ahead Of The Pack
The huge tailwinds Amazon has at present (as it rolls out its infrastructure) is the growth of its marketplaces and web division. Just look at how competitors such as Microsoft (NSDQ:MSFT) and International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) are building out their cloud infrastructure but still remain miles behind Amazon. Growth here is just beginning as more sectors are moving their entire business models to the cloud. Investors have no idea just how much work ( both from a commercial and personal standpoint) will be done on the cloud in the future. Amazon at present is in a prime position so expect growth rates to continue.
Shipping Costs (As a % Of Revenue) Will Come Down Over Time Which Is Bullish
The company's marketplaces are also set up to dominate as overworked customers increasingly are prioritizing their precious time above having to visit an offline store. Bezos is investing in speed and convenience here as he knows both will pay handsome dividends going forward. With regards to speed, the company is currently rolling out its own delivery operations which now comprises a large fleet of planes. I just love Bezos' line of thinking here. With the level of goods, Amazon is expected to ship over the next few years, he knows he can substantially bring down shipping costs if he can take a lot of it under his control. Therefore over time, expect the trend to fall which will free up more cash flow to keep investing. On the convenience side, the company has launched an offline prototype which will tailor to customers who want an offline presence. Units will be highly digitized meaning queues should be non-existent. Endeavors such as these should tie customers even more to the company over time. (See also: Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Stock: How Amazon Go Will Disrupt Retail Again)
To sum up, Amazon is still a huge growth opportunity despite the searing growth it has achieved since 1997. Yes, there will be peaks and troughs but the general direction should be higher. Long Amazon.
Looking for tech stocks? Check out Amigobulls' top stock picks, which have beaten the NASDAQ by over 110%.