Facebook Earnings To Grow Despite Slowing User Growth

  • Facebook recently acquired Wit.ai and QuickFire.
  • User growth continues to slow even as engagement metrics are improving.
  • Improving engagement metrics will drive Facebook revenue growth as well as Facebook revenue per user, leading to continued growth in Facebook earnings.

Facebook (FB) is back in the news, following a couple of acquisitions to begin the new year. The social media giant acquired voice recognition company wit.ai and also acquired video compression service QuickFire. Apart from the acquisitions, new data on growth and engagement from Pew research is out, indicating user engagement is on the rise. We think Facebook earnings will continue to grow as more of Facebook revenue drips down to the bottom line, driven by growth in user monetization and higher Facebook revenue per user.

Facebook Acquires Wit.ai and QuickFire

It is unclear as to how wit.ai will help the social media giant. However, the acquisition of QuickFire has a clear intent. In a world where video advertising is accounting for more and more online advertising dollars, the QuickFire acquisition could help Facebook create its own video hosting platform. While the terms of the two deals are being kept under cover, the QuickFire acquisition is aimed at increasing online video advertising share for Facebook.

Global Online video ad spend
Source: Statista

The online video ad spend is expected to grow 17% annually over the next two years to reach $11.4 billion by 2016. The company’s interest in this space is understandable, given the huge growth expected in the market which will only add to Facebook ad revenue.

Facebook User Growth Slowing

A recent report from the Pew research center showed that user growth could be slowing as Facebook’s user share of online adults remained flat from 2013 to 2014, at 71% of online adults.

social-media-site-usage-by-year
Source: Pew research report

However, this isn't surprising as the company has reached a huge scale in terms of number of users, which is significantly higher than any of its competitors. Given the huge user base and also the popularity of the social network among internet users, incremental growth in this metric will continue to be tougher. Given the tougher comps on user growth, engagement metrics will drive monetization and by extension, Facebook's revenue growth as well. The Pew report had some encouraging news for Facebook investors in terms of engagement.

The percentage of users using the Facebook platform saw a 7 percentage point improvement from 2013 to 2014, which were the most significant gains amongst any of the social networks. According to the report, 70% of total users now use the platform daily, with 45% of the users using it several times in a day.

Daily users as a percentage of total users

2013 2014
Facebook 63% 70%
Twitter 46% 36%
Pinterest 17% 17%
Instagram 49% 49%
LinkedIn 13% 13%

Source: Pew research report

Facebook Revenue Per User Rises Higher

The results of the Pew research are reflected in the financials of Facebook as the company has started to see acceleration in average revenue per user (ARPU) in the last two years even as user growth has been steadily on a decline.

Facebook Revenue Per User Growth Chart

Facebook user growth and average revenue per user growth

Facebook has made an ARPU of $6.1 in the first three quarters of 2014 and will, in all likelihood finish the year with an ARPU in excess of $8.1, largely driven by improvements in the mobile ARPU. The growth in ARPU will drive Facebook earnings growth as well as Facebook revenue growth even as user growth continues to slow.

Facebook Valuation

As per our Facebook stock analysis, the stock currently trades at extremely high last twelve months (LTM) valuation multiples.

Facebook valuations, though pricey are significantly lower than year ago levels and have been helped by significant growth in revenue and earnings through the first three quarters of 2014.

Facebook stock chart
Facebook stock chart by Amigobulls

The growth in Facebook earnings could outgrow its valuations and lead to significant upside in Facebook stock price even in case of contraction in the valuation multiples.

Conclusion

Facebook recently acquired two start-ups with one of them clearly focused on the video ad markets. The focus on the video ad space could help improve Facebook revenue per user, which will be the key driver of Facebook revenue and earnings as the user growth continues to slow. Earnings growth could outgrow current valuations, leading to Facebook stock price gains even if valuation multiples see further contraction from current levels.

Show Full Article
5 2
Is this article helpful ?    


Neither Amigobulls, nor any members of its staff hold positions in any of the stocks discussed in this post. The author may not be a certified/registered investment advisor, and the opinions expressed should not be treated as investment advice. Buying and selling of securities carries the risk of monetary losses. Readers/Viewers are advised to carry out their own due diligence and consult their investment advisors before making any investment decisions. Neither Amigobulls, nor the author have any business relationship with any of the companies covered in this post.

show more

Comments on this article and FB stock

Do share this awesome post