Under Armour Inc: Will Q3 Earnings Open Up A Buying Opportunity In UA Stock?

  • Under Armour lost nearly 25% in stock value over the past 12 months.
  • The company still intends to keep its 20%+ growth record intact.
  • Any earnings miss might present a ripe opportunity for investors.
Under Armour Inc Will Q3 Earnings Open Up An Opportunity In UA Stock
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Under Armour Inc. (NYSE:UA), the hypergrowth sportswear and apparel maker, will be reporting its third quarter earnings on October 25th before the market open. Though their revenue growth story has continued this year, several events - such as the bankruptcy of Sports Authority, their largest seller, and news about their declining women’s segment numbers - dented the market sentiment, leading to a decline of more than 25% in the Under Armour stock price in the last twelve months.

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As a hyper growth stock with 25 consecutive quarters of 20% plus growth, Under Armour is still trading at 3.7 times sales despite the sharp decline since last year. Wall Street analysts are expecting a consensus EPS of 0.25 on the back of $1.46 billion in revenues.

UA has guided for $4.925 billion in revenues for fiscal 2016, a growth of 24% over 2015. The company revised its guidance downwards from $5 billion and 26% growth after first quarter results, to accommodate the impact of Sports Authority’s bankruptcy.

Also read: With Strong Growth Potential, Under Armour Stock Is A Buy

In the first quarter UA recorded revenues of $1.05 billion, a growth of 30% and in the second quarter sales increased 28% to $1.0 billion. With $4.925 billion expected for fiscal 2016, UA is clearly planning to hold on to its above-20% growth record over the next few quarters which should allow some breathing space for its already battered stock.

Based on current visibility, the Company expects 2016 net revenues of approximately $4.925 billion, representing growth of 24% over 2015, and 2016 operating income in the range of $440 million to $445 million, representing growth of 8% to 9% over 2015.” - UA 2Q Press Release

UA should be able to easily get over its sales targets, but all eyes will be on their third quarter operating income numbers, which UA has guided to be in the range of $180 million to $185 million, a growth of 5% to 8% compared to the year-ago period.

In reality, the sharp decline had more to do with the overvaluation of UA’s stock price rather than the changes in the fundamentals of the company. UA’s super-sized competitor Nike is also going through a bit of a rough patch of late, but for entirely different reasons. Nike’s sales growth has taken a hit due to fluctuations in the currency market, but the fact that a company with nearly eight times UA’s sales is targeting near double-digit expansion year-over-year speaks volumes about the opportunity in the market.

The sport’s apparel and footwear industries are worth hundreds of billions of dollars, with its leader Nike accounting for a small part of a highly fragmented market controlled by regional players around the world. Both Nike and Under Armour have plenty of room to grow and are solid companies to invest in. But as is the case with any company that posts solid growth numbers, the market overreacted, pushing their stocks over the top. And when bad news struck it reacted even more sharply, punishing the stock price.

If UA’s bottom line continues with the negative impact from a one-time event such as the bankruptcy of one of its top sellers, the stock might continue its correction phase, thus providing a great opportunity for investors to accumulate a solid company. Investors should be happy that both Nike and UA are trading closer to their 52-week lows, and be ready to add more if their stocks decline after the earnings release.

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  • I do not have any business relationship with the companies mentioned in this post.
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