Will Priceline Q1 Earnings Beat Wall Street Estimates?

  • Priceline Group Inc. is expected to report its Q1 2016 earnings on May 4.
  • The analyst consensus expects Priceline to report Non-GAAP EPS of 9.7 on revenue of $2.12B.
  • Slowing Forex headwinds could drive Priceline to an earnings beat, boosting the stock price in the process.

Priceline Group Inc. (NSDQ:PCLN) is scheduled to announce its Q1 2016 earnings on May 4 before the markets open. Priceline stock had been under pressure for most of 2015 after rising forex headwinds dragged growth for a better part of the year. Priceline generates over 86% of its revenue from international operations, which amplified the impact of forex headwinds. However, the stock has seen a revival of sorts with the US dollar flattening out in 2016, leading to a rally of sorts in Priceline stock price.

PCLN stock chart

Source: Priceline stock price by amigobulls.com

Will the upcoming earnings report help sustain the recent rally in Priceline stock price? A large beat, driven by a significant pick-up in YoY growth metrics could add further upward momentum to Priceline stock.

Priceline Analyst Estimates

The current analyst consensus estimates Priceline to report non-GAAP EPS of $9.7 and revenue of $2.12 billion. This compares to revenue of $1.84 billion and Non-GAAP EPS of $8.12 in Q1 2015. The analyst consensus implies a 15.2% YoY topline growth and 19% growth in earnings per share.

In the Q4 2015 earnings call, Priceline management guided for YoY revenue growth in the range of 9% - 16% and Non-GAAP EPS in the range of $9-$9.6. Priceline Q1 2016 guidance and analyst estimates are summarised below.

Q1 2015 Q1 2016 low guidance Q1 2016 high-end guidance Q1 2016 Guidance mid-point Analyst Consensus Guidance Implied growth (YoY) Consensus implied growth (YoY)
Revenue (in millions of $) 1840.694 2006.356 2135.205 2070.781 2121 12.5% 15.2%
Non-GAAP EPS ($) 8.12 9 9.6 9.3 9.7 14.6% 19.5%

Source: Estimize and Q4 2015 conference call

The management guidance, at its mid-point, implies YoY revenue growth of 12.5% and earnings growth of 14.6% YoY. This compares with top line growth of 9.2% YoY in 2015 and EPS growth of 9.7% YoY. The current earnings whisper anticipates PCLN to report Non-GAAP earnings of $9.96 per share.

Priceline Earnings History

Priceline has a strong history of beating analyst expectations. The company has delivered an earnings surprise in each quarter for the last 3 years. On the revenue front, Priceline has beaten analyst forecasts in 11 out of the last 12 quarterly earnings report. The company has beaten earnings estimates by an average of 5.9% over the last 3 years while delivering an average revenue beat of 1.2% over the same period.

Priceline Stock: Analyst Opinion And Price Targets

Analysts currently have a consensus 'buy' rating on Priceline stock, with 14 out of 30 analysts having a 'buy' rating on the stock. While 5 analysts have graded the stock a 'Strong Buy', 11 analysts assign the stock a 'Hold' rating. With just a single analyst rating the stock at 'Underperform', the analyst community is largely bullish on Priceline stock, heading into the upcoming earnings release.

Slowing Forex Headwinds

The forex headwinds have been abating of late, with the US Dollar weakening against most major global currencies.

US Dollar index

Source: CNBC

Quoting from Priceline's Q1 2015 10-Q:

The U.S. Dollar significantly strengthened against the Euro during 2014, moving from an exchange rate of 1.38 U.S. Dollars per Euro as of January 1, 2014 to 1.21 U.S. Dollars per Euro as of December 31, 2014. The U.S. Dollar strengthened further during the first quarter of 2015 to an exchange rate of 1.07 U.S. Dollars per Euro as of March 31, 2015.

The US Dollar was trading at $1.1381 per Euro at the end of Q1 (on March 31, 2015), implying a 6%+ upside for Euro recorded revenues. With the forex headwinds of 2015 now behind it, Priceline could well surprise in its upcoming earnings release.


The Priceline group is expected to report its earnings on May 4th before markets open. With the analyst estimates as well guidance implying accelerating growth trends, a beat could propel Priceline stock higher post the earnings release. With forex headwinds abating and a history of delivering earnings beats, Priceline looks likely to topple estimates yet again. The earnings whisper number implies for a huge 26 cent beat.

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Neither Amigobulls, nor any members of its staff hold positions in any of the stocks discussed in this post. The author may not be a certified/registered investment advisor, and the opinions expressed should not be treated as investment advice. Buying and selling of securities carries the risk of monetary losses. Readers/Viewers are advised to carry out their own due diligence and consult their investment advisors before making any investment decisions. Neither Amigobulls, nor the author have any business relationship with any of the companies covered in this post.

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